Covid victims in Lombardy

The aim of this page is to provide a more accurate view of the actual toll of the covid pandemic in Lombardy, the most heavily affected region in Italy.

Official data on covid deaths in Lombardy and Italy, like in most other severely affected countries and regions, are incomplete as it was not possible, especially (in Italy’s case) in March and in the worst-hit provinces, to test all victims for covid; thousands of people who died of covid, especially in retirement homes and to a lesser extent in their own homes, were buried without ever being tested for the virus, and as a result were not included in the official death toll, which is consequently an underestimate. Data on excess deaths instead offer a more accurate view of the actual death toll from the pandemic.

The source of this data is a table by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Tavola decessi per 7270 Comuni nel periodo 1 gennaio-15 maggio per la media degli anni 2015-2019 e per l’anno 2020 per comune di residenza, con approfondimenti per sesso ed età sul periodo 1 marzo-15 maggio, published on 18 June 2020 and available at the following link: https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/03/Tavola-riepilogativa-e-tracciato-record.zip

Available data cover 1,469 municipalities, out of 1,506 municipalities of Lombardy (97.5 %). More precisely, the data covers 241 of the 243 municipalities of the province of Bergamo, 203 of the 206 of the province of Brescia, 143 of the 160 of the province of Como, 112 of the 115 of the province of Cremona, 82 of the 85 of the province of Lecco, 59 of the 61 of the province of Lodi, 62 of the 70 of the province of Mantua, 131 of the 134 of the province of Milan, 53 of the 55 of the province of Monza, 176 of the 188 of the province of Pavia, 77 of the 78 of the province of Sondrio, 130 of the 141 of the province of Varese.

Of these 1,469 municipalities, 1,220 (83 %) saw an increase in mortalità, 151 (10,3 %) saw a decrease in mortalità, and 98 (6,7 %) saw neither an increase nor a decrease.

Excess deaths in Lombardy, by province:

Province of Bergamo: 6011 excess deaths (+6019 in municipalities that saw an increase in mortality, -8 in municipalities where mortalità decreased)

Province of Brescia: 4306 excess deaths (+4337, -31)

Province of Como: 720 excess deaths (+782, -62)

Province of Cremona: 2039 excess deaths (+2043, -4)

Province of Lecco: 876 excess deaths (+886, -10)

Province of Lodi: 928 excess deaths (+936, -8)

Province of Mantua: 825 excess deaths (+837, -12)

Province of Milan: 5086 excess deaths (+5103, -17)

Province of Monza: 1329 excess deaths (+1334, -5)

Province of Pavia: 414 excess deaths (+442, -28)

Province of Sondrio: 289 excess deaths (+318, -29)

Province of Varese: 676 excess deaths (+759, -83)

Altogether, Lombardy saw 23,499 excess deaths between 1 January and 31 May 2020, that is 6,751 more than the 16,748 official covid victims in the region as of 12 July 2020.

The underestimate comes mostly from the worst-affected provinces, especially Bergamo, where excess deaths are almost twice the number of official covid deaths.

Excess deaths as percentage of overall population, by province:

Bergamo: 0,54 % (overall population: 1,110,457)

Brescia: 0,34 % (overall population: 1,262,135)

Como: 0,12 % (overall population: 599,637)

Cremona: 0,57 % (overall population: 358,578)

Lecco: 0,26 % (overall population: 337,256)

Lodi: 0,40 % (overall population: 229,946)

Mantua: 0,20 % (overall population: 411,959)

Milan: 0,16 % (overall population: 3,233,541)

Monza: 0,15 % (overall population: 871,523)

Pavia: 0,07 % (overall population: 545,611)

Sondrio: 0,16 % (overall population: 181,249)

Varese: 0,08 % (overall population: 890,418)

The pattern of mortality is markedly dishomogeneous; while all provinces have experienced excess mortalità, excess deaths amounted to less than 0.10 % of overall population in two provinces (Pavia and Varese), between 0.10 % and 0.19 % in four (Como, Milan, Monza, Sondrio), between 0.20 and 0.29 % in two (Lecco and Mantua), between 0.30 and 0.39 % in one (Brescia), between 0.40 and 0.49 % in one (Lodi) and over 0.50 % in two (Bergamo and Cremona). This difference can be explained by the lockdown, which prevented the virus from spreading in all provinces in the same measure as it did in the ones where the original clusters were found (Lodi and Bergamo) and in the ones that neighboured them (Cremona and Brescia; indeed, these four provinces are the ones with the highest increase in mortality).

It is worth pointing out that Lodi, the province where Codogno and the first “red zone” were located, experienced a considerable excess mortality, but considerably lower than the one experienced by neighbouring Cremona and by Bergamo. It does not seem implausible to speculate that this difference may have been caused by the creation of the “red zone” in Codogno and surroundings, which slowed down the spread of the virus in this province, while it was left free to spread in Cremona (owing to the vicinity to Lodi) and in Bergamo (owing to the outbreak in Nembro and Alzano Lombardo, where no “red zone” was created) during the time that passed between the creation of the “red zone” in the province of Lodi (23 February) and the imposition of lockdown in all of Lombardy (8 March).

I think that some more details about the provinces of Bergamo and Cremona, the most affected ones, could be of interest.

In the province of Cremona, excess deaths in twelve municipalities (Acquanegra Cremonese, Casalbuttano ed Uniti, Casalmorano, Cingia de’ Botti, Crotta d’Adda, Robecco d’Oglio, San Martino del Lago, Scandolara Rivara, Solarolo Rainerio, Sospiro, Stagno Lombardo, Trigolo) exceeded 1 % of the entire population; the worst-hit municipality being Cingia de’ Botti, where excess deaths amounted to 3.36 % of the 1,220 inhabitants, followed by Casalbuttano ed Uniti (1.92 % of the 3,851 inhabitants), Scandolara Rivara (1.86 % of the 1,346 inhabitants) and Casalmorano (1.85 % of the 1,622 inhabitants).

In a province where only three municipalities (Crema, Cremona, and Casalmaggiore) exceed 10,000 inhabitants, two municipalities saw more than a hundred excess deaths: the provincial capital, Cremona (403 excess deaths from a population of 72,680), and Crema, the second largest town (219 excess deaths from a population of 34,633).

In the province of Bergamo, municipalities where excess deaths amounted to over 1 % of the population were thirty-three: Averara, Azzone, Bianzano, Brembate di Sopra, Brumano, Camerata Cornello, Carona, Casnigo, Cassiglio, Cene, Clusone, Costa Valle Imagna, Cusio, Fiorano al Serio, Fonteno, Gazzaniga, Leffe, Lenna, Moio de’ Calvi, Nembro, Oneta, Ornica, Parzanica, Piazzatorre, San Pellegrino Terme, Santa Brigida, Schilpario, Songavazzo, Valbondione, Valleve, Valtorta, Villa d’Adda, Zogno. The worst affected ones, percentage wise, were small mountain villages such as Fonteno (where excess deaths amounted to 2.45 % of the 571 inhabitants), Cusio (2.13 % of the 235 inhabitants), Piazzatorre (1.79 % of the 390 inhabitants) and Costa Valle Imagna (1.78 % of 562 inhabitants).

In seven municipalities excess deaths were over a hundred: Bergamo (622 excess deaths from a population of 122,383), Seriate (152 out of a population of 25,505), Nembro (151 out of a population of 11,508), Albino (148 out of a population of 17,778), Treviglio (123 out of a population of 30,930), Dalmine (122 out of a population of 23,655), Alzano Lombardo (108 out of a population of 13,701).

It is worth noting that nearly all excess deaths occurred in the months of March and April 2020. In the months of January and February, overall mortality had actually been slightly lower than the average of the same period in 2015-2019; and in May it had gone back to pre-covid levels. If one compared the mortality in March-April 2020 to that of March-April 2015-2019, the number of excess deaths would be even higher.